How Six Gamblers Cashed In Big on Secret US Airstrikes Against Iran—And What They Don’t Want You to Know
So, apparently, some savvy—or should I say lucky—gamblers have been raking in serious cash betting on US airstrikes in Iran. Yes, you read that right—while the world watched escalating tensions, a handful of folks were quietly turning war buzz into a payday. Yesterday (February 28), Donald Trump announced that the US and Israel launched “major combat operations” against Iran, with Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly dead amidst the chaos. Meanwhile, on platforms like Polymarket, people weren’t just betting on sports or reality TV outcomes—they were placing wagers on global conflict, with some accounts netting over a million dollars by predicting the exact day of the airstrikes. Makes you wonder—did they have insider info, or just an incredible crystal ball? Either way, the line between geopolitics and gambling just got a lot blurrier. LEARN MORE
A number of gamblers have made significant amounts of money off US airstrikes in Iran.
Yesterday (28 February) Donald Trump announced that the US and Israel had started ‘major combat operations’ against Iran, with Israel’s defence minister saying they had launched a ‘pre-emptive strike’ and Trump later confirming the US had participated.
Iranian retaliation targeted a number of countries as strikes were reported in Israel, Dubai, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, and their state media confirmed claims from the US and Israel that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was dead.
Trump called Khamenei ‘one of the most evil people in History’ and said Iranians protesting against the Ayatollah’s regime had ‘their single greatest chance’ to overthrow it.
Elsewhere in the world some people have been making a lot of money off bets that the US would target Iran with airstrikes on sites like Polymarket, where people can place bets on pretty much anything from global events to whether there’s a secret Stranger Things episode.
Some people are making a fortune betting on US airstrikes in Iran, leading to speculation over whether they knew it was going to happen (Polymarket)
According to analytics platform Bubblemaps, six accounts made around $1.2 million by betting the US would strike Iran on 28 February and claims that most of these accounts put money in within the 24 hours before the strikes and put specific bets on yesterday being the day.
As such it has resulted in speculation that some of the traders placing bets may have had some insider knowledge that an attack was going to be launched and they had an opportunity to profit from it.
Betting using insider knowledge is banned, but enforcement is up to the sites.
The Independent reports that prediction market Kalshi has seen $36 million in bets placed over whether there will be a regime change in Iran, and that Polymarket saw $31 million worth of trades taking place over whether the now-dead Khamenei would still be in power in Iran by 31 March.
Anyone who bet that he wouldn’t will also have made money gambling on his death.
There have been concerns over insider trading (X/@ChrisMurphyCT)
Chris Murphy, a US senator from Connecticut, said it was ‘insane this is legal’ and said he would be introducing legislation to stop such trades.
The US airstrikes on Iran and whatever comes next are not the first time people have made significant amounts of money betting on US military activity.
When the US captured Venezuelan head of state Nicolas Maduro earlier this year there were relatively new accounts which put significant sums on him being ousted from his position just hours before it happened.
Polymarket is continuing to accept bets on whether the US will strike Iran in the coming days, with the vast majority of people putting money onto the platform thinking they will.
On their Iran page, Polymarket say: “The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society.
“That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”
The LADbible Group have contacted Polymarket for comment.
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