Mystery Surrounds Kosmos 482’s Fiery Descent—Is the UK in Its Path?

If you thought your weather forecast this week was all about dodging a sprinkle or two, hang tight—because the UK might be in for a visitor with a bit more… impact. Picture this: partly cloudy skies, a chance of rain, and a 53-year-old Soviet spacecraft nosediving back to Earth. So, yeah, maybe swap that flimsy brolly for something a little sturdier. Kosmos 482, launched back in the glory days of March 1972 with big dreams of hitting Venus, stumbled right after liftoff and instead got stuck circling our planet like the cosmic version of that friend who never leaves the party. Now, after half a century in orbit, Earth’s gravity is finally convincing this ancient Soviet relic to call it a day—and the UK might just be on its “welcome home” route. But here’s the kicker: unlike most space junk that sizzles harmlessly into oblivion, Kosmos 482’s descent module was crafted to brave Venus’s inferno—so don’t be surprised if some bits and bobs actually make it to the ground, meteor-style. Curious (and maybe a bit nervous) about whether it’ll cause trouble—or even land in your backyard? Let’s dig deeper. LEARN MORE.

If you’re looking to get out and about this week, the UK is set for partially cloudy weather with the odd chance of rain, and a 53-year old plummeting Soviet spacecraft. Maybe pack a heavy-duty umbrella.

Kosmos 482, which has been orbiting the Earth for decades is finally ready to come home, after the Soviet Union launched it back on 31 March, 1972.

Originally intended as a mission to Venus, Kosmos 482 failed shortly after lift-off and has been trapped in Earth’s orbit ever since.

The Soviet Union launched Kosmos 482 in 1972 (Sovfoto/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Now, after more than 50 years in space, the aging spacecraft is being dragged down by Earth’s gravity. According to space debris trackers, Kosmos 482 is expected to re-enter the atmosphere sometime this week.

While its exact path isn’t certain, according to computer models tracking Kosmos 482, parts of the UK could be within the potential impact zone.

Will Kosmos 482 cause damage?

Unlike modern spacecraft, which are often designed to burn up completely upon re-entry, Kosmos 482 includes a descent module that was built to withstand the harsh atmosphere of Venus.

This module was designed to survive extreme heat and pressure, making it possible that parts of it could endure retry through Earth’s atmosphere, and impacting the planet, much like a meteor.

Because of its design, experts believe there’s a high chance that some fragments may survive and reach the ground.

Although the chance of debris hitting populated areas is considered low, it cannot be ruled out entirely.

The spacecraft is likely to survive its decent (Getty Stock Image)

Predicting the precise landing location of falling space debris is notoriously difficult, especially when it’s not a controlled landing, however, experts are monitoring the spacecraft in an attempt to predict where it might fall.

Speaking to NPR, Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, has claimed “There’s a not trivial chance that it could hit somewhere where it damages property.

“And there’s a small chance – but it’s like one in thousands – that it could hurt somebody.”

When and where will Kosmos 482 impact Earth?

According to McDowell, ‘it’s in its final death plunge’ meaning the spacecraft isn’t far from entering the Earth’s atmosphere and finding its final resting place.

Dr Marco Langbroek, a spy satellite researcher at the Dutch satellite tracking station SatTrackCam Leiden, took to X to give a much more detailed timeline of when we can expect the spacecraft to make impact.

According to Dr Langbroek, we can expect to see Kosmos 482 around 10 May, give or take a couple of days.

In his blog, he goes on to say that ‘it likely will be a hard impact: I doubt the parachute deployment system will still work after 53 years and with dead batteries’. Dr Langbroek also states that the 500kg and one-metre spacecraft poses the same risk as a meteorite impact.

The estimated landing window might not be accurate (Sovfoto/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Dr Langbroek co-developed a re-entry model, and has placed the landing anywhere between Canada, Russia, and the southern end of South America.

The spacecraft could wind up landing in the UK, but, with the modelling not being perfect, it’s just as likely it could land up in the ocean, or even hand delivering itself back to Putin‘s front door.