Shattering History: Unveiling the Hidden Devastation of the 1789 Smallpox Epidemic on Aboriginal Australians
Ever wonder who really unleashed the smallpox epidemic that devastated Australia’s Indigenous peoples back in 1789? For ages, the story went one way: blame it on the Makassan fishermen from Indonesia, those adventurous sorts who visited northern Australia. But nope, new research flips the script—pointing the finger squarely at the British First Fleet, those 11 ships that landed in 1788 carrying colonists and, unfortunately, much more than just hopes and dreams. It turns out, these ships might’ve been lugging vials of smallpox scabs (yes, you read that right) used for inoculations, sparking a tragic wave of disease that tore through communities around Sydney. The numbers? Heartbreaking—an estimated 220,000 Indigenous lives lost, far greater than anyone suspected. So, next time you think about history’s big surprises, remember this: sometimes the culprit isn’t who you think, and the scars run much deeper than the textbooks admit. LEARN MORE
Though some had suggested that the disease was introduced by Makassans visiting northern Australia from their islands in Indonesia, researchers discovered that the British ships of the First Fleet were ground zero for the epidemic.
Art Gallery of NSWA depiction of the entrance to Sydney Harbour, Australia by Joseph Lycett circa 1822.
Soon after Royal Navy officer and explorer James Cook first surveyed Australia, Britain sent 11 ships to settle the continent in 1788. Once the ships reached shore and the Union Jack was raised, a wave of terror began to devastate the continent’s Indigenous people.
Smallpox tore through the Aboriginal population, especially in and around Sydney, causing untold thousands of torturous deaths. Historians have long remained uncertain about the source of the outbreak. Now, researchers believe they’ve proven that the 1789 smallpox epidemic began, “beyond a shadow of a doubt,” with the First Fleet of British colonists — and that the death toll was far worse than previously thought.
The British First Fleet That Likely Caused Australia’s 1789 Smallpox Outbreak
Due to the fact that there were no documented cases of smallpox on the First Fleet of British colonists, historians had long argued that the outbreak could not have been triggered by those ships. Instead, it was said that the disease must have come to the continent from the northern coast, through contact with Makassan fishermen from Indonesia.
Mitchell Library, State Library of New South WalesA 1786 portrait of Captain Arthur Phillip, the commander of the First Fleet.
However, as described in a recent study published in Nature Human Behavior, researchers tested this earlier hypothesis using computer models that incorporate death rates, travel routes based on water availability, Aboriginal language group data, and population density comparisons between Sydney and Australia’s northern coast.
Ultimately, the modeling revealed that if a smallpox epidemic did originate in the northern coast of the continent, it would have dwindled before reaching Sydney Harbor.
“No matter how bad we assume the disease to be, it couldn’t have made it from the north to Sydney at the right time,” Flinders University ecologist Corey Bradshaw, a co-author of the paper, said to Science.
Pictorial Press Ltd/AlamyResearchers believe that the British First Fleet brought vials of smallpox scabs with them to Australia.
Alan Williams, another study co-author and archaeologist, told Live Science that, although there were no recorded smallpox cases on the First Fleet, the source of the outbreak was likely vials of dried smallpox scabs that medics kept for inoculations (a kind of pre-vaccine).
Furthermore, Williams said that the scabs were probably replenished at various stops along the way from Portsmouth, England to Botany Bay, Australia to keep the virus alive.
“There is very strong evidence that it was the First Fleet,” study co-author Matthew Cody Nitschke told Live Science, regarding the source of the 1789 outbreak.
How This Study Debunks Earlier Ideas About The Devastation Of Australia’s Indigenous Population
Researchers estimated that 220,000 Aboriginal people died from the 1789 smallpox outbreak, which was under-documented by early 20th century Australian authorities. The study also refers to a related preprint paper that further shows how smallpox and other repercussions of colonization took a greater toll on the Aboriginal people than previously believed.
Previous researchers had estimated that precolonial Australia was home to somewhere between 200,000 and 800,000 Indigenous people, based on reports collected in the late 1800s.
“There’s been an assumption that Aboriginal populations were quite low and their activities were ephemeral and transient,” Williams told Science.
National Gallery of Australia, CanberraResearchers estimated that about 220,000 people died from the 1789 smallpox outbreak.
In the preprint paper, however, the same research team used radiocarbon dating at archaeological sites in Australia, population growth modeling, and modern genetic analysis of people of Aboriginal descent to suggest that the population of pre-colonial Australia was much higher at the time of the First Fleet’s arrival — likely about 2.3 million.
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