Unseen Climate Signal Suggests ‘Super El Niño’ Crisis Is Escalating Beyond Predictions
So, here we are again, sweating through yet another summer that just can’t seem to get any hotter—thanks in no small part to the looming menace of the ‘Super El Niño.’ You know, that pesky weather pattern where parts of the Pacific Ocean decide to turn up the heat like they’re at a tropical barbecue gone rogue? Well, it’s happening, and it’s getting worse. Scientists first flagged it in June, noting the tropical Pacific waters are sizzling enough to throw the whole climate into a tizzy. Meanwhile, over in Western Europe, heatwaves have smashed through temperature records like a bull in a china shop, creating what can only be described as seriously prolonged hot and dry conditions. July wasn’t exactly chill either—it set the record for the hottest sea surface temperatures outside the polar ice caps. And if you thought 2024 was scorching, brace yourself—climate experts are warning that 2026 might just snatch the crown as the hottest year ever, thanks to this mega El Niño and a warming planet that just can’t catch a break. But the big question is: how much hotter can it really get before we all start reconsidering our beach vacation plans?
The menacing ‘Super El Niño’ weather event could now become even worse as ‘extreme heat’ continues to grip the world with scientists now making worrying predictions.
Confirmed to be happening back in June, El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting the wider climate.
The heatwaves roiling Western Europe this summer have now broken an average temperature record for the June-July period set in 2022, according to the European climate agency Copernicus, causing ‘prolonged hot and dry’ conditions across much of the continent.
“July also saw the highest sea surface temperature (SST) ever recorded for July across the extra-polar oceans, partly fuelled by developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific,” Copernicus said.
Temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have also risen enough for this to be considered an El Nino (NOAA Satellite)
“July saw exceptionally high temperatures for the month across a large portion of the tropical Pacific, an area where El Niño conditions are present and forecast to further strengthen in the coming months.”
Climate scientists have now predicted that this year’s ‘Super El Niño’, which is defined as when sea surface temperatures climb by at least 2C, will be the strongest of the century.
The extreme heat began in May and has since contributed to major wildfires, prolonged drought and new national temperature records across the region, as well as thousands of projected heat-related deaths.
The rise in temperatures will also cause more wildfires (Getty)
This is the third-hottest year globally, behind 2024 and 2025, climate statistics show. However scientists have predicted that 2026 could be even hotter, with fresh fears raised for 2027.
Previous El Niño events have been linked to droughts and floods in different regions over the years – and this event could see the extreme weather brought on quicker than originally predicted
However, thanks to accelerated human-caused global warming and a supersized El Niño, leading to temperature variations around the globe, there’s an increasing chance that by the end of the year, 2026 could become the hottest year on record, beating out 2024.
Last month saw the highest average sea surface temperature ever recorded for July across the extra-polar oceans, or the oceans free of seasonal sea ice, Copernicus said.
That was partially fuelled by developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific. he new average record for July is 20.96C, which beat the 2023 record of 20.89C.
2026 could be the hottest on record (Copernicus)
But last month’s average surface air temperature globally was 16.9C, making it only the joint second warmest July on record and tied with July 2024, Copernicus reported.
In Western Europe, meanwhile, the average temperature record for the June-July period hit 21.62C, Copernicus said.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: “Persistent high-pressure systems trapped heat over western Europe, the extreme temperatures also amplified widespread drought.
An illustration of the El Niño weather pattern (Getty)
“As soils dry out, they lose their ability to provide natural cooling, allowing heat to build more readily.
“This is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing one another.”
In France alone, heatwave alerts were issued for the first time on record in May, when more than half the country recorded new monthly temperature highs.
The heat intensified in June, a period during which at least 5,700 more deaths than usual were recorded, according to France’s public health agency.
Meteo-France said June 23 was the hottest day ever recorded in the country, with temperatures climbing high as 44.3C in the south-west.
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